Russian media analysis: will China and India fight? What are the capabilities of the two sides?
Compile: Luo Siwen
The 26 issue of Russian viewpoint newspaper published an article entitled "will the world face the threat of a big battle between China and India" in June 2020? The article is written by Russian military expert Alexander Timoshin. The Sino Indian War capacity has been objectively analyzed.
The article notes that The India delegation has just visited Moscow and discussed the issue of large-scale procurement of Russian weaponry. The visit occurred almost simultaneously with the dozens of casualties that occurred on the Sino Indian border. What does this mean? Can border conflicts be turned into real wars? Whose military capability seems more convincing?
The conflict between Chinese and Indian soldiers in the Ladakh region on the Sino Indian border began to escalate in June 15, 2020. 20 people died in India. The two sides explained different reasons and details of the incident. But there is one thing. It is indisputable that neither side has used firearms. This fact shows that the leaders of China and India are not interested in upgrading the conflict. Before the fight, both sides dispatched many troops to the disputed area, including armored equipment. But these forces have not been used in the past, nor are they available now.
First of all, who is in favor of this incident?
The India government is likely to use the "Chinese factor" for domestic political purposes, from uniting the people to increasing the military budget, and then flirting with the United States. By the way, Secretary of state Pompeio has expressed his support for India. On the other hand, for the pending border, China has been implementing policies for its neighbouring countries for many years, often with a limited scale military action in China. In this way, China tries to explain to neighbouring countries that it is time to finally reach an agreement on boundary issues.
In June 21st, India times Pakistan has shelled India's Kashmir state, and 5 civilians in India have been injured. If it is true, it is obvious that India is implying that China has a friend in the region, Pakistan. If there is a war, it will not stand idly by.
At present, there is no conflict between China and India, and the two sides have exchanged casualties. So far, they are only opposites and do not express the will to fight.
Why do China and India not intend to fight big?
For China, the war with India necessarily means a sharp rise in the pressure of the United States. It is clear that Washington will support India. In particular, the American people, like the top Republicans, will oppose China in a clear-cut way. China has just experienced a large-scale economic recession triggered by the coronavirus epidemic. Obviously, there is no need to do so.
India has the same factors. China is obviously stronger. 。 Besides, there is also a pro Pakistan China nearby. It is easy for India to fall into two line operations. The three countries have nuclear weapons and their means of delivery. Under such circumstances, India has no advantage. Generally speaking, China and Pakistan are far ahead of India in terms of nuclear power. In addition, like China, there are serious problems caused by coronavirus in India. Like the Chinese, Indians do not care about war.
Moreover, the leadership of India understands that The beneficiaries of such a war will not be India. A sparsely populated and disputed region is not worth any heavy losses. In the war with China, India will only use its power, money, resources and energy to make chestnuts for the American fire. People's lives to solve their problems.
However, the government of India is terrified of the prospect of conflict, asking Russia for help to speed up the delivery of weapons, especially the S-400 system and fighter planes. Russia seems to have agreed. However, These actions are more of an insurance than a real conflict preparation. This is a very fragile insurance. Once India truly goes to war with China, no military equipment can help it.
This is all because China is stronger. 。 China has more fighters, attack planes, more ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. Most importantly, China can make almost everything. India has so far relied heavily on arms imports (India delegation's visit to Moscow confirmed this). China imports very little, most of its weapons are made by itself. China is far ahead of India in terms of UAVs, including strikes, precision weapons and many other weapons. In any war, India will immediately fall into the fatal dependence on imports, while China will not. China has an obvious advantage in the "surface to surface" missiles, which can help them seize the air supremacy and provide the ability to destroy the Indian airport in the war zone.
China not only has the advantage of the number of aircraft, but also has a large number of more advanced aircraft. Su -35, annihilate -10, annihilate -20 and Su -27 family's deep improvement -16 will be fighting against India's -30 -30, Rafael and MIG -29. All these planes are much taller than those of "classmate" in India. This means that China will remain dominant without reservation. Apart from tanks, there is a similar gap in all weaponry and technology. India is superior in quality to tanks and has an advantage in quantity.
Economic, social soft power and regional influence
Compared with India, China will be more resilient in other matches. China's economy can bear more concussion than India, and society is more united and more organized. 。 China has the potential to intervene in the Pakistan conflict, which will balance India's efforts to win even temporary strength. and Americans can help India, but Americans will not fight for India. 。 All this gives India little chance.
India leaders have long realized this, and because they can not surpass China's armament quality, they bet on quantity.
At present, the existing reserve forces of the India army are twice as high as that of China. Theoretically, this enables them to quickly mobilize an army more than China, even though its equipment is poor. But the problem is that besides Pakistan, there is also the battlefield characteristics to balance this difference. In recent decades, China has invested a lot of money in building roads in disputed areas.
This means that when necessary, China can send more troops to the region, and it will be faster. Even if India has more ground troops, it will be useless. China has not deployed an equal number of ground troops in disputed areas, which can be done by China.
China strictly followed the principle of Sun Tzu (War of Art) before the war to ensure its victory. India is unlikely to open war like China. Although there are explosive threats in the area, no one really wants war. Unless Americans need Anti China programs. 。
For Russia, the ideal solution is to let the two sides sit at the negotiating table to persuade them to start delineating the border.
Finally, the author thinks that This is not impossible. 。 Although it looks as if there will be no big war this time, tensions in the mountains along the border between China and India will continue for a long time.