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Perspective on the next 10 years' new economic momentum of China's economy

qspyq2015 @ 2019/12/23


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The last "big vision" External safety, economic prosperity According to the notice, we will share recent research experience from an innovative perspective.

I hope this article will give you some inspiration and courage in this winter.

From a macro perspective, my basic analysis framework for China's economy is as follows:

1. The Chinese economy has settled the high growth which has lasted more than 30 years since the reform and opening up. In recent years, it has been adjusted in a large box. This adjustment is longer and harder than expected. It may take 20 years (roughly 2010-2030 years) in the historical perspective. If we can achieve self transcendence, China will become a modern high-income economy, and then continue to develop, probably in the middle of twenty-first Century to 1820, GDP accounted for 32.9% of the world's level.

Many organizations have not studied big words. For example, in 2010, Li Laisi, chief economist of Standard Chartered Bank, predicted that the proportion of the world's largest nominal GDP in the world by 2030 would be rewritten as follows: China is 24%, the European Union (27 countries) is 14%, the United States is 12%, India is 10%, Japan is 3%. Even then, China's economy was 2 times the size of the United States, and its GDP per capita was half that of the US.

2. If we can't break through the box in the next 10 years, China will fall into the middle income trap. In 1960, there were 101 middle-income economies in the world. After 50 years, only 13 became high-income economies, and 88 were still middle income economies. The most important reason is that after the loss of low cost advantage, we can not achieve higher value through innovation.

3. So where to go in the next 10 years is crucial. And this is a system engineering.

4. China's hope is that today's basic conditions are better (hardware, software and new consumer structure), and the direction of development is better (such as tap agglomeration, innovation driven, quality improvement, efficiency, good economy, green economy). At the same time, some Chinese enterprises have explored effective new paths.

In my research, I feel that China's economy is moving from "rough era" to "sophisticated era", from "shallow era" to "deep era", from "old age" to "new era". In a word, the direction is Refined, deep and new

"Precision" is precise in production and marketing, lean in production, fine in service, exquisite in product, and so on. "Deep" is the technological innovation, knowledge innovation and complex innovation which are more and more moving towards the bottom. At the same time, it is more and more moving towards the grass-roots level.

Can China's economy succeed in transformation? In terms of innovation, we must concentrate on depth and efficiency.

If the path evolves along the path, China's economy will be able to reach the world and benefit the people. A robust, self-motivated and dynamic economy will not deviate from the potential growth rate, and may even have unexpected surprises.

Part one: New basic conditions of China's economy

What changes are taking place in the basic conditions of China's economy? This is the foundation for the next 10 years.

The three point is that Scale, level, new consumer

scale

As we all know, the large scale of the market helps to improve the efficiency of specialization, which is the basis of growth. I would like to add a new view that large market scale plus differentiation will help to accommodate more business development, thereby maintaining diversity and enhancing efficiency and consumer surplus through competition between enterprises and enterprises.

In the past few years, Guangdong Vatti and Ningbo FOTILE research found that their supply chain is very different, Vatti's suppliers are mainly in the Pearl River Delta, FOTILE is mainly in the Yangtze River Delta. Research this year PATH (Ping An, Ali, Tencent, HUAWEI) find that they do not seem to be the same thing. They compete in many fields such as smart city and N. Ali cloud is very strong, but Tencent cloud's quarterly revenue has been close to half of Ali cloud. HUAWEI also regards cloud services as "black land" of information, automation and intellectualization. Alibaba has been riding a dust bowl, but it has not been able to restrain the rise of the US group's comments and spells. Diversification and competition have many benefits.

At the same time, we can see that China's market scale is being branded, quality-oriented, leading and chain oriented. Yang Guofu's spicy and hot peppery and Zhang Liang's spicy hot peppery have nearly 7000 stores and 5000 stores in the country (one is an uncle and the other is a nephew), and Yang's goal is even "3 stores nationwide." Henan Kaifeng Zhang Hongchao started selling ice shaved ice in Zhengzhou. His fresh ice cream tea drinking chain "Honey snow ice city" broke through 5000 stores in the end of 2018, and opened another 2000 in 2019. Many of these three brands haven't tried it yet. This is the strength of the scale market.

Say it again. The 16 brands of platinum Tao hotel group have 6000 mid-range hotels, and more sunken customers have opened 4000. Ji Qi, founder of Hua Hua group, recently announced that his goal was to open to 1 in 2022, covering every county. He said that China has two markets at the same time, one is the 400 million consumer upgrading market with a middle income group, the other is the 1 billion mass market (with 1 billion people earning less than 80 thousand yuan per year) and two markets.

Nanjing eats 100 million ducks a year, Wuhan eats 3 billion crayfish a year, and there are 50 milk tea shops in China. As far as hotels are concerned, there are 81 hotels and 20 million rooms in China, but the income of single rooms is low, even less than 100 yuan, and the operation efficiency is poor. The rate of brand linkage is only 17% (39% in Europe and 70% in the US). 1 billion the public is very sensitive to price. They can ride a car without a train. They can ride the green skin instead of the high-speed rail. They can ride high speed rail without flying. But in the long run, this will change.

The expansion of the Chinese market, as well as quality improvement and upgrading, is still far from over.

In 2018, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China exceeded 38 trillion yuan, and the number of employed persons living and eating was over 27 million (2017 figures). In 2018, China's domestic tourism revenue was 5 trillion and 130 billion yuan, an average annual growth rate of 17.7% over the past 24 years, but at present, China's per capita domestic outbound travel is only once a quarter.

Therefore, do not doubt the scale of the future of the Chinese market, whether in quantity or in quality.

level

The second major change in China's economic fundamentals is that as a developing country, its infrastructures such as digitalization, Internet, telecommunications and transportation have reached a fairly high level. Even more than many developed economies. Of course, many places have done a lot of achievements, such as big, unprofitable, wasteful or overly advanced projects.

By the end of 2018, the number of 4G users in China reached 1 billion 170 million, and the total number of mobile phones reached 1 billion 570 million. There were 24 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in the country with a mobile phone penetration rate of more than 100 per 100 people. 5G has also started. The total mileage of China's high-speed rail business exceeds 2/3 of the world, and the electrification rate and double line rate of railway business mileage reach 70% and 58% respectively. The highway density reaches 50.5 km / 100 square kilometers. In rural highway mileage, Tong harden road and township and village respectively reach 99.6% and 99.5% respectively. The total mileage of the expressway is 143 thousand kilometers, the number one in the world. China's ports, civil aviation, postal services and express delivery also have great changes. If general aviation is more open, logistics "last mile" will be better solved.

What does this mean? Signify China's infrastructure can fully support the further development of economic activities, or even a little ahead. The infrastructure is changing to the world, and the following lines are flying together (online mobile payments, WeChat, micro-blog, short videos, social platforms, etc.), which not only create better conditions for the products to sink from the developed cities, but also provide a background for the more intensive development of the modern metropolitan area (such as "urban integration" and "1 hour economic circle").

At the end of 1978, there were only 193 cities in China (101 above the county level, 92 in the county level, 2176 in the town), 672 in the end of 2018 (297 above the prefecture level, 375 in the county level, and 21297 in the construction town), and the urban population and the scale of land occupation were significantly enlarged. At the end of the 2017 year, the urban population in the upper reaches of the city was 2017, and the urban built-up area increased by more than seven times between 1981 and 2017.

New foundations create new opportunities. For example, the brand chain mentioned earlier. For example, the new things like Wei Lai automobile have users in 292 cities at the prefecture level and above. This is because the synchronous information sharing can create the long tail effect of products. For example, the development of Internet training, social business and short video has promoted knowledge and consumption, providing low threshold entrepreneurial opportunities. At present, there are over 74 thousand knowledge-based creators on fans, and their knowledge content is over 5 billion 210 million times daily. Over the past year, more than 19 million people have obtained income from the fast track platform. The number of sales in state-level poverty-stricken counties is about 1 million 150 thousand, with an annual sales volume of 19 billion 300 million yuan. None of these opportunities existed before.

The convenience of infrastructure will reshape the concept of time and space, and speed up the nationwide layout and capacity spillover of brand enterprises. I have just been to Wuhan, and the Wuhan headquarters of Xiaomi recently opened a garden. Currently, there are 2000 employees and 80% are recruited locally. The goal of the next 10 years is to accommodate 10 thousand people. Lei Jun said: "This is only the beginning. Over the next 1 million 300 thousand years, more than 1 million 300 thousand square meters of office should be implemented. "

I see all the major cities in the country are building second headquarters, R & D headquarters, marketing headquarters and so on. The "distributed configuration" of large enterprise resources is inseparable from the improvement of infrastructure.

Of course, the new infrastructure is not a blessing for all industries. When everything is online, traditional businesses and services are bound to encounter impact. "Banks (services) are everywhere, and they are not in banks." this is Brett Kim's view in BANK4.0. What he said is far more than banks.


New consumer

The more than 700 million consumers born after 1980 are more fully subdivided, more individualized, more aesthetic and cost-effective, and more socialized, fragmented, shared, faster and more emotional. These are some basic characteristics of the Internet aborigines. The intergenerational population born before 1980 is also an important consumer group, but the population born after 1980 is more active and novel.

The first time I went to Foshan to investigate a small household electrical appliance company, I was surprised to find that there are so many varieties of small household appliances, such as electric saucepan, health pot, yogurt machine, juicer, egg maker, humidifier, lunch box, electric stove, toaster, egg whisker, electric oven, chopper, etc. It's just an electric stew pot. It also has health care double stewed bird's nest cup, steamed and stewed multi energy white porcelain cup, Tang Xiangnong purple sand pot, double steel double stewed electric pot, delicious delicious soup stew pot, and so on.

All of these are through the Internet and new consumer interaction, find new needs, subdivision, subdivision, ultra segmentation. This promotes the formation of flexible supply chain. The revenue and profit growth of the small household appliance company is far faster than that of the large household electrical appliance company, which is more than 30% or even more than 40% every year. Their rise is to a large extent created by the new consumption crowd.

New consumer groups are pulling new supply opportunities. They like a series of cross-border products brought by the "national tide" in the Imperial Palace. They like to try new cool things. They like "new national products". They like grass planting and live streaming red. They like personalized experience, like customizing gift boxes and star customized items, like pets, like "super convenience" (such as ordering Xiaolong Bao, soya bean milk and fried bread sticks) in the supermarket. The factors that affect the preferences of new consumers are: Social media (shopping in the past is knowing what to buy, then searching and deciding; now it is stimulated by social sharing, buying many planned products), the apple custom created by Jobs (let even those who can not afford to buy it know what is good design), the two culture, fashion, stars, music, video, IP, consumer financial support represented by ACGN (moving pictures, comics, games, novels). Their consumption ideas are more timely and advanced.

In 2018, China Mobile Internet access traffic consumption reached 71 billion 100 million GB, 56.1 times in 2013, and the average annual growth rate of 123.8% in 5 years. An inspiration here is that consumption of information and content is ahead, and the economy is producing "the way of life presented by culture and content".

People who like to try new foods are defining new markets and new rules.

Summary

Written here, the conclusion is clear: The basic condition of China's economy today is to support high quality and sustainable new development.

Of course, to stimulate the market potential, we need a lot of efforts. But unless the Chinese demand for life so far, the power of China's big market and new market is still ahead.

Last Thursday, I participated in a public welfare event organized by a luxury brand. I learned that almost all luxury brands in China have grown very well over the past two years, all of which are double-digit or even 20%-30% growth. The reason is that it is not easy to bring goods from overseas, but mainly because new consumers are up and fill the gap of the last generation of consumers.

Luxury goods are very interesting. The real outbreak of the market was in Japan in the 80s of last century. The Japanese turned the value of tonality into identity labels. Chinese consumers are replaying this scene.

Incidentally, a friend told me that a top luxury brand has been operating in Hongkong for over 30 years, and for the first time this year. We can see that the market still needs a stable environment.

Part II: Innovation path of Chinese Enterprises

The development of any enterprise is inseparable from the background of the times. Through the first part, we can infer that the starting point of Chinese enterprises' innovation is the new infrastructure represented by digitization and high-speed rail, as well as the new consumer groups. And the foothold of Chinese enterprises. One is good. (high quality, deep, deep, new) One is good. (social good, attaching importance to environment, society, governance, employee and stakeholder value).

From the starting point to the final foothold, the middle is path selection. In recent years, I have talked about digital transformation, bottom innovation, business model innovation around new consumer groups and so on.

There are three aspects to be discussed: innovative attitude, professional innovation, and how to invest in innovation.

Use mindfulness to innovate

Over the years, selling points, draught theory, preemptive mind theory, and so on, are very popular. A lot of enterprises have been digging up their own minds, claiming themselves false and false, thinking that this is innovation, and consumers will recognize it.

In fact, a lot of innovation is the natural result of doing what we should stick to and working hard and strives for perfection. In this regard, vivo and FOTILE did very well.

Last month, I went to a net red barbecue shop in Xi'an, in the spirit of "traditional flavor, ingenuity and perseverance" 8 words, has been open for 27 years, has not expanded, and now there are only 5 stores, but every family has to queue up, the rate of turn over is very high. The shopkeeper told me that there were 3000 barbecue shops in Xi'an, but none of them could be a representative of the category like the old beef and mutton steamed bun. He wants to see if he can become a barbecue benchmark through standardization.

"There is nothing special about meat, cumin, peppers and other raw materials. We try to find the best suppliers, such as we never use frozen meat, and cumin has always chosen a place in Xinjiang. Only one part of beef is selected, and the knife method is also standardized. Repeated experiments, and finally found the feeling of the first barbecue 30 years ago, and then insisted on it. "

During the National Day this year, the Jianye Huayi Brothers Movie Town in Zhengzhou, Henan, has received nearly 200 thousand tourists, becoming the new Zhongyuan Red Net scenic spot in Central Plains. Not a few Real estate enterprises go to Henan to learn to build a series of cultural towns (such as soccer Town, Jun porcelain town), and the innovation experience of "Jianye +" happy ecosystem.

I asked Hu Baosen, founder of Jianye, he said, it seems that some innovation has been made in recent years. In fact, Jianye has never changed direction, and has not changed its business. "I have seen so many enterprises in these decades that life and death and ups and downs are due to frequent changes in direction. Jianye from 1992 to 2019 stuck to a province in Henan, currently covering all prefecture level cities and county-level cities (a total of 123). In 2019, a prefecture level city in Zhoukou province sold 13 billion, and Zhoukou Huaiyang County sold 1 billion a day. There is a deep foundation for the five levels of linkage between cities, counties, towns and villages. In 2015, Jianye began to explore the "new blue ocean" which is "let the people of Henan live in a good house" to "let the people of Henan live a good life". Jianye APP currently has 2 million users, and the target is 10 million in the next few years. By then, many services will shine brilliantly, and truly form a community service integrating online and offline. "

In the first paragraph, I met a founder of "Tao brand". In 2006, with the help of Taobao, he recalled that many "Amoy brands" thrive and fail. It is mainly because they are accustomed to a unique selling point plus traffic support. After the fire, they did not return to the root of the whole system, and built up the whole system of supply chain, production, logistics and services, and finally became "short-lived innovation".

If we really do well in the "positive" things, we will continue to improve, and keep pace with the times, and innovation will come naturally.


Innovate with professionalism

The so-called "professionalism innovation" refers to innovation in areas where we excel and specialize.

Recently, I have contacted three innovative entrepreneurial enterprises in Nanjing, Wuxi and Suzhou in Jiangsu. They are all typical models of professional entrepreneurship. They have not taken too many detours, and the probability of success is very high.

Nanjing Elp regenerative medical technology company: Founded in 2016, there are currently more than 50 people, more than 60% R & D personnel, 16 master's degree, 5 PhD, and 6 overseas students. Wang Jiaxian, founder of University of Hong Kong, is a post-80 generation doctor in regenerative medicine, focusing on the field of cardiac regeneration.

The technology direction adopted by ALP was Japanese scientists who broke through in 2006 and won the Nobel Prize in 2012. Elp regenerative medicine was granted the only authorized iPS cell bank of Chinese refractory diseases in 2017. The first national heart failure cell therapy project based on iPS technology has also obtained ethical approvals for clinical research in hospitals, and is being filed for national records and patient screening.

Sky medical technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd.: Founded in 2017, it is a CT core component (CT tube) manufacturer. The two founders are in the mountains, successively in the French Thales X ray imaging system, SIEMENS medical and Holland PHILPS medical work, Wang Songdong has more than 20 years of experience in X ray tube product development and management, and worked in Xu Guang shares, SIEMENS medical and PHILPS medical treatment. With the experience of developing and manufacturing CT machines and CT tubes for many years, large scale multinational medical device manufacturers have developed and produced CT ball tubes (a "China made 2025") with high heat capacity and high reliability, and have successfully entered the international market. The approval and listing will soon be completed in China.

Snow wave number system: Founded in May 2018 in Wuxi Economic Development Zone, founder Wang Feng is the general manager of the ET industrial brain of Ali Yun. Prior to the NI (National Instruments Co., Ltd.), IBM and other technology companies. Ali's academician Wang Jian is his guide.

Wang Feng designed an independently controllable OS 5G new industrial data operation system. By realizing the data collection, processing, storage and communication of the whole system of man, machine, material, law and ring, it helps customers realize the comprehensive and rapid transformation of digitalization from the "supply", "research", "production" and "sales" links, and upgrade from product, production line to industrial chain. The founding team is from aliyun, Baidu, Microsoft, ABB, SIEMENS and other Internet and automation companies.

In the past 2012-2015 years, a lot of "double creators" must be called the Internet thinking, but finally they were different. Wang Jiaxian, Yu Shan, Wang Songdong and Wang Feng gave me the impression that they are experts and experts in this field first, then entrepreneurs and innovators. I vaguely believe that the next 10 years will be the age of professional innovation. In the era of productive innovation, the pattern of killing the teacher and burning the money in the future will not work.


Investing in innovation in invisible ways

This month, I went to the US group research and did not come for several years. I was surprised to find that 20 years ago, when I interviewed the air conditioning factory in the United States, I now built the Central Academy of Sciences, more than 400 acres, including twenty or thirty first-class laboratories, and the whole campus is like a university campus. My impression is that only the environment of HUAWEI Songshan Lake base and Ping'an Zhangjiang support base is slightly better than this.

The United States began to transform before and after 2011, with the goal of product leadership, efficiency driven and global operation. Efficiency drivers include: Manufacturing efficiency enhancement, resource efficiency enhancement, automation informatization, and capacity production to inventory. The "double going" of the United States was more than 4 years ahead of the government's proposal of "three go down and one subsidy" in December 2015.

Since then, the United States has no longer extended its parks and production lines, deposited funds on reinforced concrete, and has also withdrawn from some industrial parks. And put money into the "human head", technology research and development, digital capacity building, global expansion (such as the 5000 patents and brands of Toshiba white power, the acquisition of KUKA, Gao Chuang, etc.), and the layout of new industries such as IoT. For the five years ended 2018, The United States accumulated a total investment of 30 billion yuan (which is expected to exceed 10 billion in 2019), set up 28 R & D centers in 11 countries including China, set up AI artificial intelligence research and development center in Silicon Valley, has over 10 thousand worldwide R & D personnel, and over 500 foreign senior experts, and the number of invention patents in the field of household appliances has been ranked first in the world for three consecutive years.

The United States adheres to the principle that "profit performance is better than income performance, cash flow performance is better than profit performance" principle, and recombines product process, manufacturing process and channel process, in order to transform the company's products and services into cash more quickly, lower cost and more efficiently.

Embodied in the statement, that is, the cost rate is lower, the cash cycle is further shortened (formerly 30 days, now is -7 days), the product improves faster and improves profitability. Now all the production in the United States revolves around the fixed order production, and the channel is flat. All dealers have no warehouse or cargo, and distribute to the point by the big logistics of the whole country. The United States does not have its own raw material warehouse, and all suppliers provide raw materials to be delivered directly to the production line in 2 hours.

In 2018, the United States also selected more than 30 "post-90s" to form "distant flights", specially training the vice presidents and presidents of departments and departments, so that management can better listen to the younger generation's thinking and ideas.

Fang Hongbo, chairman of the United States and CTO Hu Zhiqiang, said that the United States now requires all business lines to be "first or only". Just like musk can launch rockets that can be recalled with innovative thinking, and build super high-speed railway with "vacuum pipe transportation". Home appliances can also be redefined, for example, the most high-end air-conditioner is actually an environmental management system. By concentrating on the technology of air turbine swirling in aero engine technology, the United States can make the air-conditioner deliver a double-layer near far circulation rather than a single wind to achieve uniform cooling effect. At the same time, the multi vector softening disturbance technology can realize gradually diffused flow.

Based on its digital transformation, the United States has built an industrial Internet platform, which consists of four layers: Industrial APP and SaaS, industrial cloud platform, SCADA online platform, edge computing, robotics and automation have been applied to more than 200 enterprises in more than 20 industries, including GW group, Vanke, Anta, Ningde times and other leading enterprises.

After PATH, I discovered a new industry capable person. This is beautiful. It is by no means accidental that the United States can become the first market capitalization of all manufacturing listed companies in China and become a QFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) that can no longer be purchased (the upper limit is 28% of the company's shares). Beauty is Founded in 1968, but through innovation and change in every era, today is the new mainstream enterprise of the global appliance industry in twenty-first Century.

Fang Hongbo said to me: "Our money, tens of billions of dollars, are invested in the invisible place, that is, people, that is, the innovation of knowledge and technology, that is, the improvement of lean capabilities. This is very similar to what I heard in PATH.


Summary

The real examples I have seen tell me that Chinese enterprises are moving forward in the aspects of essence, depth, innovation and number. Qualitative change is taking place.

Niu Wenwen, chairman of the venture black horse, said that they were the latest entrepreneurs in the black horse camp. The founders of the 111 new ventures accounted for 54% of the new enterprises, 70 of them accounted for 32%, 75% of the enterprises had accumulated for at least 3 years, and more than 90% of the enterprises had annual sales revenue of over 50 million. They were mainly distributed in large consumption (39), enterprise services (24), medical health (11), education (24), advanced manufacturing (home), big entertainment (intelligent home), artificial intelligence (home), automobile transportation (home), and other (home). One of the most gratifying figures for me is that 77% of enterprises do not rely on financing.

The current financing environment is not as hot as before. 77%, this figure shows that there are many opportunities for the Chinese market to accommodate excellent entrepreneurs, and the market will give way to real innovators.

In a recent speech, he was asked: Is there any relationship between Jia Yueting's failure and the hot money boost of investors at that time? "

Yes, summer flowers can not last long, but pine and cypress in winter can be evergreen.

Many of the companies I have studied have heard that leaders are not forcing their employees to work overtime. Used to be Leaders do not walk away from employees. Now, employees do not go. Guide is also embarrassed to go. Many people say that it's not easy to make money now. They must do more difficult things to make money.

Commit suicide It's hard. In spite of hard work, doing things that are difficult and of long-term significance is of course progress.

I do not advocate young people to have a very stressful "double speed life", but in the evening the office buildings are brightly lit and dinner is still queuing up. Scene, It will still make me moved. We Chinese have some natural background. There is a gene that is self pressurization and selflessness.

This is the biggest card in China's Renaissance. Our "King fried"!

With such a brand, the Chinese economy has no reason to be locked and solidified at such a level now. Unless we do not cherish the enthusiasm of young people, the enthusiasm of entrepreneurs and the enthusiasm of striving people.

Creating a better environment for all creative forces - this is my biggest expectation for 2020s.

"This article only represents the author's personal view".

"Picture China"


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